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Full-year retail sales growth to moderate in 2022

Analysts predict the full-year retail sales to grow around 9%-10%.

From the 11.1% expansion in 2021, analysts expect the full-year retail sales growth to moderate in 2022 to around 9%-10%.

Whilst the forecast growth is lower compared to last year's, RHB said the 2022 figure would still mean that "retail sales will return to pre-COVID levels by the end of this year." RHB forecast the retail sales growth to be at 10%.

UOB, for its part, said: "Retail sales will continue to be supported in 2022, in line with the reopening trends and tightening labour market."

"We also keep the view that potential front-loading of consumer purchases this year could support retail sales ahead of the higher GST rate adjustment due in 2023," UOb added.

With borders reopening and domestic activities recovering, UOB said retail sales will likely expand by 9.0% in 2022.

Previously, UOB's forecast was 6.0%, but after the higher than expected 17.8% YoY retail sales growth print in May, it hiked its estimate.

"The projection takes into account the downside to growth and upside to inflation outlook brought on by a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, dampening the recovery in consumption demand while the region’s transition to the endemic state and increase in private spending could help offset some of those negative effects," UOB said.

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