Retail sales growth masks softer consumer mood

eToro said April’s headline growth was partly driven by higher petrol prices.

April retail sales rose 5.4% YoY, but the headline growth may be masking softer consumer sentiment, according to eToro market analyst Zavier Wong.

Wong said the latest figures were encouraging at first glance, but petrol service stations accounted for a significant share of the increase.

Sales at petrol service stations rose 14.4% YoY, largely due to higher pump prices. Wong said pump prices surged to around $3.47 per litre in April as Middle East tensions pushed crude prices higher.

Discretionary spending held up reasonably well during the month. Sales of wearing apparel and footwear rose 7.8%, cosmetics and toiletries increased 6.2%, and watches and jewellery grew 6.4%.

Wong said demand for jewellery remained resilient despite elevated gold prices, as global uncertainty continued to support gold’s appeal as a hedge.

However, routine spending categories showed signs of caution. Wong noted that food, alcohol, and department stores were either flat or down.

Food and beverage sales also pointed to softer demand, with growth slowing to 0.4% YoY from March.

Wong said the outlook for the second quarter will depend on energy costs and whether tariff-related uncertainty starts to affect employment and wages.

“For now, things look to be holding up. But the composition of this print suggests consumers are in a more fragile place than the headline implies,” Wong said.