Trade steadies as tech offsets export swings: analysts

Non-oil re-exports jumped 15% YoY in December, with a surge to the US, Nomura said.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Singapore’s trade outlook in 2026, citing support from the global technology cycle despite near-term volatility in exports.

Nomura has maintained an above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 3.7% for 2026, pointing to continued strength in the tech sector.

Maybank Research reiterated its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2.8% and NODX growth of 3% to 4%, above Enterprise Singapore’s official projection range of 0% to 2%.

RHB Economics kept its forecasts for both GDP and NODX growth at 3.0%, whilst flagging downside risks from potential sector-specific tariffs affecting key export pillars such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Against this backdrop, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) moderated in December 2025 after a strong prior month. NODX growth eased to 6.1% YoY in December from 11.5% in November, which Nomura attributed to the slowdown mainly due to the normalisation of pharmaceutical exports following unusually large shipments earlier.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, NODX fell 9.4% MoM after rising 7.1% in November, Nomura said, adding that the December reading was below the 10.1% market consensus but close to its own 6.3% forecast.

Maybank Research and RHB Economics said weaker non-electronic exports were a key drag on headline growth. Non-electronics NODX slowed to 0.8% in December from 11.1% previously, with pharmaceutical exports declining 7.8% after surging in November, when shipments reached unusually high levels.

RHB similarly pointed to declines in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and petrochemicals, describing these as volatile components that weighed on overall export performance.
In contrast, analysts highlighted continued strength in electronics exports.

Maybank said electronics NODX rose 24.9% YoY, driven by integrated circuits, telecommunications equipment, and disk media products.

RHB attributed the resilience in electronics exports to AI-related demand, including semiconductors and servers, which helped offset weakness in other segments.
Re-export activity also provided some support.

Nomura said re-export growth edged up in December, led by a surge in re-exports to the US, which it said could generate spillover effects for Singapore’s trade-related services sectors.

Non-oil re-exports expanded 15% YoY, supported by electronics, whilst non-electronic re-exports contracted.

By market, analysts noted a mixed picture. Maybank highlighted double-digit export growth to China, Taiwan, and Malaysia, whilst pointing to a sharp fall in NODX to the US. Enterprise Singapore data showed that December exports also declined to the EU, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Thailand, partly offset by gains in other markets.

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