Japan's economy slumping 'faster than expected'

Industrial production fell 1.3%--much worse than the foreseen 0.1%.

According to DBS, the economy is deteriorating faster than expected. Industrial production fell -1.3% MoM sa in August, worse than the METI forecast of 0.1% and the market consensus of -0.5%.

Here's more from DBS:

While the manufacturing PMI improved marginally by 0.3ppt to 48.0 in September, it remained below the neutral level of 50. And the METI’s latest survey forecasts a further and deeper decline in industrial production in September (-2.9%). By any measure, industrial production should have remained in contraction mode in September. Reflected in GDP growth, the 3Q growth (QoQ) would be at best 0%.

From the demand-side perspective, industrial output was dragged down by external demand to a larger extent than by domestic demand. Exports, in real terms, have fallen for four consecutive months.

On the other hand, retail sales rose a modest 1.5% MoM sa in August after shrinking for two months in June-July. The near term outlook for exports remains sluggish, in light of the continued weakness in the global economy and the recent escalation of China-Japan tensions.

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