Philippine exports up 22.8% in September

Consensus expectation was a mere 4.6% increase.

DBS Group Research noted:

Exports got a significant bounce, rising by 22.8% YoY in September against consensus expectation of a 4.6% increase. Outbound shipments have been volatile of late and much of this can be attributed to sharp swings in non-electronics manufactures exports. From May to August, machinery and transport equipment have been buoying overall exports, but this component fell back to trend in September.

However, there was a 1400% MoM increase in the miscellaneous manufactured articles component. In level terms, this component was responsible for over half of the 26% MoM spike in exports. This has happened before in May, but the jump is of a smaller magnitude.

Electronics exports remained weak. Although headline YoY growth reached 1.1%, the first positive reading in six months, the figure has largely been going sideways in level terms since April. In fact, the positive YoY growth figure can largely be attributed to the wearing out of high base effects from 2011. We caution against too much optimism in this segment at this point.

The makeup of exports has changed significantly over the past two years and electronics now make up a less sizable part of total manufactured goods shipments.

Over the past six months, the value of non-electronics manufactures exports actually exceeded electronics manufactures four times, a phenomenon that was not seen before. This diversification into non-electronics products have proven to be the key factor why exports have been holding up so well this year.

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