Sluggish Taiwan exports persist

June exports came in lower than expected at -3.2% YoY.

Meanwhile, foreign reserves went up by US$2B to US$391B in June, recovering from the drop of US$5.8B in May.

Here's more from DBS' Daily Breakfast Spread:

Growth remains weak, while the external balance is stable. June exports came in lower than expected at -3.2% YoY, -0.4% MoM sa. Given the flat trend seen in export orders as of May, export performance is expected to remain sluggish in early 3Q. The investment cycle seems to have bottomed out, but a significant recovery remains unlikely in the short term. Capital goods imports have returned to the US$3B level since March and stabilized at US$3.3B in the recent two months.

Trade balance, however, stayed in a strong surplus of US$2.6B in June, with the offset by the weakness in overall imports and the declines in oil prices.

Also, thanks to the improvement in equity investment flows, foreign reserves rose by US$2B to US$391B in June, recovering from the decline of US$5.8B in May. While the market sentiment will remain fragile this week and equity outflows will remain possible due to worries about a disappointing China GDP, net inflows under the current account should continue to provide a cushion for the balance of payments and the Taiwan dollar.

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