Taiwan June exports suffer negative growth

This slow growth and the 1.77 June CPI should be closely monitored, despite recovery in retail trade and private consumption.

According to Nomura, retail trade and private consumption have recovered post a drop in January. But given the export-driven nature of the Taiwan economy, there is a high correlation between exports and consumption growth.

Here's more from Nomura:

Exports have seen negative growth in FY12. Private consumption growth has stayed positive in FY12 – quite resilient considering solid growth in FY10-11.

Two concerns worth monitoring are: 1) CPI, which rose to 1.77 in June (although still healthy vs the 3-5 levels seen in FY08); and 2) Negative Taiwan export growth continuing in June – exports and private consumption growth have a high correlation.

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