2 biggest reasons why MAS is unlikely to ease monetary policy

In spite of lower inflation.

According to Credit Suisse, while the moderation in headline inflation might seem to give the central bank space to ease policy, we doubt the MAS will choose to do so given: 1) a better growth outlook and, more importantly, 2) a labour market that is expected to remain tight over the next two years.

Here's more from Credit Suisse:

As such, our base case scenario is that the MAS maintains the current pace of appreciation (currently estimated at +2.5% per annum), and keeps the width of the exchange rate band unchanged (currently estimated at +/- 1.5%). We have penciled in a 80% probability for this scenario.

We assign low probabilities to two other scenarios: (1) A slight reduction in the slope of the band (10% probability), and a shift to a faster pace of appreciation (10% probability).

With most indicators for global growth improving, we think that Singapore’s labour market would need to deteriorate sharply with the unemployment rate rising substantially and inflation remaining low, to drive the MAS to shift to a slower pace of SGD NEER appreciation.

The people you want to reach are already in this room.

Every quarter, SBR lands on the desks of the founders, CFOs, and directors running Asia's most consequential companies. Every day, they open our newsletter and read our website. It's a room that took twenty years to build — and it's the one most of our partners are trying to get into.

The good news is that the door is open. We work with companies on thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. The shape of the right partnership depends on what you're trying to do, which is why we'd rather start with a conversation than send a rate card.

If you have something this room should know about, tell us. We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how.

No rate cards until we understand the brief. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia