Asia's business cycle peak predicted to be reached at 8.8% in 2H14

Most of recovery will happen next year.

According to Deutsche Bank, Asian economies have slowed in 1H13, and the recent financial markets correction has all but eliminated the gains from the first few months of the year.

It seems like it was a lost first half of the year, when on a net basis not much has harvested from Asia.

Here's more from Deutsche Bank:

The biggest illustration of this disappointment has been China, where exports have been weak, earnings under pressure, and liquidity tight. In light of these developments, we have scaled back our growth forecasts for 2013 to 7.6% and 2014 to 8.5%.

But crucially, we remain constructive on the trajectory of the growth outlook starting from Q4. Our quarterly projection envisages that, after a modest deceleration in Q3 (to 7.5% from 7.6% in Q2), yoy GDP growth will likely recover from Q4 and in most of 2014.

We expect the forthcoming peak of the business cycle to be reached at around 8.8% in H2 next year.

We believe that the “technical” drivers of the recovery from Q4 this year and in 2014 include the end of inventory destocking, a gradual normalization of banks’ lending behavior and money velocity, a slowdown in RMB appreciation, a recovery in global demand for China’s exports, and a more favorable base effect for the impact of the anti-corruption campaign.

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