Here's what the latest economic figures mean

Q3 GDP was revised down.

OCBC Treasury Research noted:

Q3 GDP was revised down from flash estimates of -2.9% qoq saar (+0.9% yoy) to -5.9% qoq saar (+0.3% yoy), but the Q2 data was revised up from -1.5% qoq saar (+1.3% yoy) to +0.5% qoq saar (+0.5% yoy).

The loss of momentum was broad-based across manufacturing (-9.6% qoq saar), construction (-17.2% qoq saar) and services (-3.5% qoq saar) – in particular, all the services industries shrank qoq except for business services which was flat qoq. This brought the first 9 months growth to 1.5% yoy, with the Q4 growth momentum unlikely to exceed 1.6% yoy ie. no strong pick up.

This clarifies why the full-year official growth forecast was narrowed to 1.5% yoy, the lower end of the original 1.5-2.5% forecast range, citing that growth is “expected to remain subdued for the rest of 2012”, with the electronics likely “weighed down by tepid external demand”, albeit the construction sector could “provide modest growth support”.

However, “growth may be slightly lower than forecast, if weakness in the externally-oriented sectors persists into the final quarter of 2012”. For 2013, the official forecast is 1-3% yoy, with the global economy remaining sluggish, but growth in specific sectors like transport engineering and construction could provide some support.

The caveat remains that concerns of the US fiscal cutback and potential escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis could materialize and impact Singapore’s 2013 growth to be lower than expected. Retail sales rose 3.9% yoy (-0.5% mom) in Sep, up from Aug’s revised +2.8% yoy (+1.0% mom).

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