Industrial production growth predicted to jump 7% in March

Analysts will be slightly disappointed.

According to DBS, Mar14 industrial production growth (due Friday) is expected to record a 7.0% YoY rise.

This is down sharply from a robust 12.8% expansion in the previous month. But a low base effect was at work in February and March number will be more reflective of the reality.

Here's more from DBS:

But risk is on the downside. Recent PMI figures have been running sideways and the non-oil domestic export performance has been disappointing.

Market is eyeing for a 6.4% YoY rise while the advance GDP estimates announced earlier this week is hinting of a 6.7% expansion.

It remains to be seen how this will pan out. But our opinion is that even a slightly poorer outcome will not have much impact on the final 1Q14 GDP figure.

We expect the broader GDP growth figures (0.1% QoQ saar, 5.1% YoY) to be revised upwards instead.

And that will come on the back of a significant upward revision in the services sector growth projection.

Plainly, the advance estimate for services growth (-1.8% QoQ saar, 4.7% YoY) has been too conservation, which leaves room for some revision.

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