Why Singapore GDP is poised for an upward revision in Q3

Headline number to jump to 5.5% .

According to DBS, Singapore's third quarter GDP growth figures is due this week and hope is high for an upward revision. DBS expects the headline number to be raised to 0.3% QoQ saar (5.5% YoY), up from the advance estimates of -1.0% QoQ saar (5.1% YoY).

Here's more:

The advance estimates assume that industrial production will grow by 7.0% YoY in September. But a surprise spike in the electronics output saw overall industrial production surged by 9.3% in the month. This essentially lifted the quarterly growth of the manufacturing sector.

Indeed, the manufacturing sector will likely expand by 5.5% YoY instead of the advance estimate of 4.5%. Barring any significant revision to the growth figures for the construction and the services sectors, the better manufacturing growth will imply a 0.28%-pt increase in the headline GDP growth number.

Moreover, the services and the construction sectors are likely to perform better than predicted on account of the improved global economic conditions. As such, GDP growth for the quarter will most likely be to be revised upwards.

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