Guess what is the biggest threat to Singapore banks' robust loan growth

Will it scare banks soon?

According to Credit Suisse, Singapore banks' overall loan growth has been extremely strong over the past 4–6 quarters given the macro backdrop, helped by a renewed strength in regional trade finance loans and offshore corporate loan bookings in Singapore.

But with further downgrades to regional GDP growth estimates and an imminent slowdown in Singapore mortgages, the risks are to the downside in the next few quarters.

Here's more from Credit Suisse:

ASEAN loan growth slowdown is imminent. Overseas loans have been a major contributor to Singapore banks' loan growth over the past 1–2 years.

Relatively, OCBC has seen the biggest contribution from overseas loan growth (49% contribution to growth over the past year) and UOB has seen the least (only 25% contribution). The bulk of the overseas growth has come either from ASEAN (UOB and OCBC) or Greater China (DBS).

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