ThaiBev's core earnings fell 15% in 3Q

But here's why it isn't as bad as it sounds.

According to CIMB, ThaiBev's core earnings drop of 15% yoy looks bad but is not as it is due to 1) termination of Pepsi’s contract and 2) a 15-day halt to beer production due to ongoing excise tax negotiations.

If not for the disruption, the beer business may have broken even at the EBITDA level.

Here's more:

This is a decent quarter for Thai Bev, with the key takeaway being a pick-up in spirits volumes, as expected, by 4% as consumer demand returned following the acceptance of a new price reality. This vindicates our belief in the resilience of this business.

But full-year volumes are now expected to decline by 2% instead of holding steady as the implementation of the new tax calculation method in September will bring about further price increases, estimated to be a blended 7-8%.

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