India healthcare sector to remain robust in 1Q13 at 20%

Consequently, domestic business will surge to a record 4% yoy.

According to Nomura, the growth momentum for the India healthcare sector remains strong. Overall, it is estimated that it will deliver 25.6% revenue growth y-y. Product launches in the US, acquisitions, sustained growth in domestic business and currency depreciation driving growth are foreseen.

Here's more from Nomura:

Excluding large exclusivities, milestone payments and acquisitions, we estimate sector growth at 20%. We project core EBITDA to increase 35% y-y accompanied by 170bps expansion in margins. For the quarter we are below Bloomberg consensus estimates on most stocks except for Glenmark.

We build in INR 1bn lower sales in India formulation on account of pre-booking of sales in the previous quarter. As a result, the domestic business is expected to record 4% growth y-y. Excluding this, we expect domestic business to record 20% growth y-y. The US growth is expected to be driven by Lipodox, Stalevo, Astelin. These products could contribute US$40-45mn in the quarter and will be the key growth driver, in our view. Year-to-year growth, we believe, will also driven by weaker INR and higher pricing at Taro. Overall, we project sales growth at 30% y-y, much higher than management guidance of 18-20% for FY13. We expect growth rates to come down in subsequent quarters on a high base.

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