Private home prices hit seven-quarter low as sales outlook dims

New sales forecast cut to 8,500 units as fewer launches weigh on 2026 outlook.

Singapore’s private home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in seven quarters in the second quarter (Q2) of the year, as affordability pressures and a higher share of suburban sales weighed on the market.

The slowdown comes as CBRE expects new private home sales to fall to 7,500 to 8,500 units in 2026 from 10,815 units in 2025, amidst fewer launches and normalising pent-up demand.

Still, CBRE said sales momentum is expected to remain supported by selected launches and low mortgage rates.

“A decent pipeline of attractive new launches for the rest of the year and low mortgage rates are likely to continue supporting sales momentum,” said Tricia Song, CBRE Head of Research, Singapore and Southeast Asia.

Urban Redevelopment Authority flash estimates showed that private residential prices rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q2, easing from the 0.9% increase in Q1.

CBRE expects private home prices to rise 2% to 4% for the full year.

Song said the slower growth reflected mixed performance across segments. Landed homes and the Core Central Region (CCR) posted gains, whilst prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) declined.

In Q2, 2,116 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums, were sold, up 5.1% QoQ.

“This is despite fewer launches in the quarter and heightened volatility and economic uncertainty amidst the Middle East conflict,” Song added.

Separately, Huttons Asia CEO Mark Yip said up to 12 private residential launches, with about 3,567 units, could come to market in the second half.

However, full-year new sales are likely to be lower than in 2025 because developer sales are supply-led, he said.

“For the whole of 2026, around 7,300 units may be launched for sale, 36.4% lower than 2025’s 11,482 units,” Yip said.

PropNex CEO Kelvin Fong said the private market continued at a “measured pace of appreciation” in Q2.

“Whilst overall price growth has eased from the pace seen in previous quarters, Q2’s increase was the slowest in seven quarters. We believe market fundamentals remain broadly healthy,” Fong said.

The slowdown was partly driven by the suburban market. Huttons said close to 60% of sales were in the OCR, the highest since Q3 2015.

Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said the overall index may have been weighed down by more transactions in lower-priced suburban homes.

“Conversely, the proportion of transactions in CCR, which are often higher priced, dipped to 12.3%, from 24.2% and 21.9% over the same periods,” Sun said. “In Q2 2026, 28.7% of total sales were in the RCR.”

PropNex said pricing also varied widely within the suburban market. New units at Vela Bay sold at an average price of nearly $2,900 psf, compared with about $2,020 psf at Canberra Crescent Residences.

“This is probably amongst the most varied new sale pricing that we have seen in the OCR in a single quarter in recent memory,” Fong said, adding that the gap reflected an increasingly differentiated market based on location and land costs.

Developers also appeared to keep total prices within buyer budgets. Nearly 70% of new non-landed private homes sold in Q2 were priced below $2.5m, up by 15 percentage points from Q1.

“In our view, the sales data showed that developers are calibrating prices to where most of the buyer budgets sit,” Fong added.

Resale prices fall

In the public housing market, HDB resale prices fell 0.3% QoQ in Q2, following a 0.1% drop in Q1. This brought prices down 0.4% for the first half of 2026.

Resale volume was largely stable, with 6,268 flats sold as of 29 June, compared with 6,285 flats in Q1.

Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, said the HDB resale market has been moderating for several quarters.

“This is the first back-to-back quarters of negative index movement since the first half of 2019,” Wong said.

For the full year, PropNex expects HDB resale volume to reach around 26,000 to 27,000 units and prices to rise by up to 1%.

Realion attributed the weaker resale prices to competition from Build-To-Order flats, economic uncertainty, a weaker hiring outlook, and buyer resistance to high prices.

“Across the different towns, price declines outnumbered gains,” Sun said. “16 towns registered quarterly price declines.”

She noted that the largest falls were seen in Serangoon (-7.9%), Marine Parade (-7.6%), Geylang (-6.9%), Ang Mo Kio (-5.1%), Sembawang (-3.3%), and Yishun (-2.7%).

Despite the broader decline, the high end of the HDB resale market remained active. About 491 million-dollar flats were sold in Q2, up from 411 units in Q1 and the highest quarterly number on record.