Chart of the Day: Here's real proof that property prices have not fallen greater than 5%

Unless there's a system "shock".

According to Credit Suisse, 4Q developers' sales rose 6% QoQ to 2,568 units (3Q13: 2,430) after slow 3Q sales following the introduction of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework (TDSR).

For the year, developers sold 14,948 units, a 33% decline from 2012, which was in line with expectations.

Here's more from Credit Suisse:

Mass-market (OCR) continued to be the best selling segment but accounted for 41% vs 49% in 3Q13. The prime (CCR) segment was able to capture a larger proportion at 30% (vs 8% in 3Q13) lifted by Duo Residences, leading sales for the quarter. Other top selling projects were The Inflora and Alex Residences.

We expect volumes to remain 14,000 units, similar to the levels we saw in 2009-11 and should mainly consist of mass market (OCR) projects as we expect any incremental buyer given the current acquisition climate to be likely coming from upgraders demand (also given the price appreciation in the HDB market in the recent years).

In view of our current forecasts on interest rates (3M SIBOR to rise 10 bp to 0.5% in 2014 and 0.8% in 2015), we maintain our view of relatively flattish prices, where we expect low single-digit growth in some locations (especially those projects with good offerings), to be offset by potentially another 5-10% decline in the prime segment (especially the larger units as demand has been weak for that segment).

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