Here's how Singapore will suffer from a hard landing in China

Will it be worse than 2008 crisis?

According to Moody's a hard landing in China would have a sharply negative impact on Singapore, although the effect would be smaller than the 2008 global financial crisis. The most affected sectors would be electronics, foreign trade and real estate.

Here's more:

We define a Chinese hard landing as a drop in GDP growth below 3% in 2014, leading to a 5% output gap in 2015. This would have spillover effects across the global economy: GDP growth in the U.S., for instance, would be cut by 2.5 percentage points.

Under these assumptions, Singapore’s GDP would contract 3.3% y/y in GDP in late 2015—bringing its output 10 percentage points below potential. This is a large decline, and using this comparison Singapore would suffer more from a Chinese hard landing than would China itself.

But while Singapore would be one of the most affected Asian economies, the effect would be less severe than that created by the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, when output fell 9.7% y/y in the first quarter of 200—a peak‐to‐trough drop of almost 20 percentage points.

Singapore's decline in GDP would be driven mainly by exports and investment. Private consumption would hold up relatively well. Exports
dominate Singapore's economy, amounting to 226% of GDP in 2012.

Global foreign trade activity drives Singapore's re‐export business and in turn GDP growth. The relatively small domestic economy means reduced household spending would be channeled into reduced imports, such as for motor vehicles, fuel and household goods.

Although the overall economy would weather a Chinese hard landing better than the 2008 global recession, certain sectors may do worse.
One such sector is real estate. Singapore's real estate market is increasingly attuned to China's business cycle, more than is the rest of the
economy.

Prices for commercial office space in Singapore could fall 30% below our baseline forecast, worse than the 24% drop from mid‐
2008 to late 2009, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. Private residential property prices would fall at least 25% in a hard
landing.

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