Singapore growth will trail behind three Tiger Cubs

Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia simply have better policy support, says Morgan Stanley.

"In face of external headwinds, we think economies which have near-term policy support will be relatively better placed. In this context, we think Thailand (post-flood recovery efforts) looks relatively better placed, followed by Malaysia (pre-election boost), then Indonesia (commodity/external funding linkages to disturb macro stability), then Singapore (stagflation-type environment)," says Morgan Stanley in its latest ASEAN MacroScope report.

For Singapore to bolster medium-term growth, it will need to focus on macro rebalancing.

"Singapore's macro rebalancing would be one of moving away from DM to EM export markets," says Morgan Stanley, addingthat for ASEAN overall, "We think ASEAN macro rebalancing should ideally come more via investment rather than consumption. In addition."

Morgan Stanley expects growth in ASEAN to become "slower for longer" and has lowered its 2012/ 2013 ASEAN GDP growth forecasts from 5.2%/ 5.5%YoY to 5.0%/ 4.7%.

"Recovery has been pushed back. Growth momentum will be slower for longer, and the more material revision is for 2013. This revision takes on board the collective impact from the following two factors since our last review in March: 1) the recent growth downgrade in Europe, and 2) the US growth downgrade in June. Our forecasts are below consensus projections, which stand at 5.1% and 5.3%YoY for 2012/ 2013. Growth risks remain skewed to the downside," the brokerage firm explained.

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