AI boom insulates Singapore's exports from Middle East fallout: report

NODX rose 24.5% in April, marking the fastest growth since February 2012.

Singapore’s export outlook is expected to strengthen after artificial intelligence (AI)-driven electronics demand pushed April exports to their fastest growth in over a decade, offsetting concerns over Middle East tensions and higher oil prices, analysts said.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 24.5% year-on-year in April, accelerating from 15.3% growth in March.

Following the performance, CGS International Securities (CGSI) upgraded its 2026 NODX growth forecast to 5% from 2.9% previously, above Enterprise Singapore’s official 2% to 4% forecast range.

“Robust global AI demand should continue to underpin electronics exports, particularly in semiconductors,” CGSI said.

Meanwhile, a Maybank report said the April figure marked the strongest NODX growth since February 2012. The bank also expects full-year growth to exceed the initial forecast range.

“The AI capex boom will likely be sustained into the second half of the year,“ it added.

Electronics exports rose 66.7% in April after climbing 73.9% in the previous month, supported by integrated circuits, disk media products, and personal computers.

Integrated circuit exports increased 82.7%, whilst disk media products jumped 148.9%.

Non-electronics exports also rebounded 10.9% after three consecutive months of contraction, supported by pharmaceuticals, specialised machinery, and measuring instruments.

CGSI said exports to the US rose 59.6% during the month on the back of pharmaceuticals and disk media products. Exports to China grew 37.8% on stronger shipments of specialised machinery and integrated circuits.

The brokerage cited Semiconductor Industry Association projections that global chip sales could reach $1.28t (US$1t) in 2026, with first-quarter sales already exceeding fourth-quarter 2025 levels.

However, both reports warned that geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices could weigh on trade momentum.

Maybank said petrochemical exports fell 24.5% in April, extending declines into a 14th straight month due partly to naphtha supply disruptions linked to the Gulf conflict.

CGSI said prolonged geopolitical tensions, higher crude oil prices, softer global demand, and tighter financial conditions remain risks to Singapore’s export outlook.

Singapore’s trade surplus widened from $10b in March to $13.8b in April, it added.

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