Chart of the Day: Analysts fearlessly predict Singapore economy to jump 4.4%

This is bolder than government's forecast.

According to Standard Chartered, final Q4-2013 revised higher to 5.5% y/y from the advance 4.4% print; full-year 2013 growth is 4.1%.

External demand provides the pick-up as domestic activity slows. Analysts expect 2014 growth at 4.4%; this is slightly more optimistic than the government’s forecast of 2-4%.

Here's more from Standard Chartered:

Singapore’s Q4-2013 GDP growth was revised higher to 5.5% y/y from the advance estimate of 4.4% y/y.

On a q/q seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) basis, Q4 GDP growth was revised to a positive 6.1% from the advance print of -2.7%.

As a result, full-year 2013 growth was revised higher to 4.1%, versus our forecast of 3.9%, driven mainly by strong manufacturing performance in December.

Manufacturing growth was revised higher to 7% y/y for Q4 from the advance estimate of 3.5%. Construction and services growth was also revised slightly higher – to 4.8% y/y and 5.9% y/y from the advance estimates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.

On an expenditure basis, private consumption growth slowed to 1.9% y/y in Q4, the slowest y/y growth for the year. Investment contracted by 6.3% y/y, led by a contraction in investment in transport equipment. Net exports boosted overall GDP growth by a considerable 8.5ppt as import growth slowed 2.5% y/y.

On an expenditure basis, the main growth driver in 2013 was external demand. Exports rose 3.6%, versus 1.4% in 2012, while private consumption growth slowed to 2.7% from 4.1% in 2012. Spending on transport fell 3.6%, in line with fewer vehicle-ownership permits being issued.

Investment contracted by 2.6% in 2013. Residential- building construction was strong, growing 9.2%, but investment in transport equipment fell by a sharp 26.9% on a real basis.

Investment in machinery, equipment and software was also weak and fell 5.2%, likely due to weak external demand in H1. Net exports contributed 2.2ppt to full-year GDP growth, a significant improvement from the 4.4ppt subtraction from GDP growth in 2012.

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