Don't expect NODX to bounce back big time: analyst

Only a 2.5% rise is foreseen after the 10.6% drop.

According to DBS, the non-oil domestic export (NODX) figure for Sep12 due this week may bring some respite after a streak of poor economic numbers in recent months.

Here's more from DBS:

The headline number is expected to register a 2.5% YoY rise after a massive 10.6% drop in the previous month. On the sequential basis, we look for a rebound of about 5-6% MoM sa after a 9.1% plunge in the previous month.

Weakness in electronics demand and plant shutdowns in the biomedical segment have jointly delivered poor export and industrial production figures over the last two months.

But the effects of the festive season demand may start to kick in from September onwards. This could bring about better electronics sales. Though the effect will be transient for just 2-3 months, any form of boost will help given the weak global demand thus far.

Separately, production has been sluggish in the biomedical segment over the last two months as a result of the industry specific down-cycle. A strong rebound should not be discounted given the volatile nature of this industry. And that could provide significant upside to the headline NODX figure.

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