This graph is proof that Q3 GDP will slip 10%

Blame it on the upward adjustment in Q2 data.

According to CIMB, PM Lee hinted that a technical recession may have been averted in 3Q12, not because the economy did better than expected in 3Q12, but because revised data probably showed a slight expansion in 2Q12 GDP rather than a contraction of 0.7% qoq SAAR as earlier estimated.

Here's more from CIMB:

The bad news is that the 3Q12 GDP probably contracted by a larger than expected 10% qoq SAAR rather our estimate of -2% (consensus: -1.5%) due to the upward adjustment to 2Q12 GDP.

Due to the upward revision to 2Q12 GDP, the economy likely shrank by a larger than expected -10% qoq SAAR in 3Q12 vs. our current estimate of -2% (consensus: -1.5%).

Despite these revisions, there are only likely to be marginal adjustments to the yoy growth. We expect 1Q12 growth to be tweaked down to 1.4% (1.5% currently) while 2Q12 growth is expected to be bumped up to 2.1% (2.0% currently).

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