Singapore NODX growth predicted to nudge up to 4.2%

Electronics segment seen to impress.

According to DBS, November non-oil domestic export figure due tomorrow morning will add on to the current optimism about recovery in external demand. Headline NODX growth will likely improve to 4.2% YoY, up from 2.8% in October. Electronics will likely be in the driving seat while demand from China will be an important factor to reckon with.

Here's more:

The electronics sector expanded further to 51.2 based on November PMI number. This was driven by further growth in new orders from domestic and overseas markets. Electronics production output, imports and inputs prices increased while stocks of finished goods declined further.

For now, all is still well for this sector, after having picked up from its cyclical doldrum last year. Although there are signs that manufacturers could be embarking of destocking in anticipation of the seasonal lull earlier next year, that is more of a seasonal effect rather than a cyclical decline.

China is another big reason why export sales will remain brisk. Note that China has been a key impetus in Singapore economic outlook in recent months. Headline non-oil domestic export (NODX) posted its strongest expansion to date in October, precisely because of demand from China.

Indeed, NODX to China has averaged 19% per month between Aug-Oct13 and has outperformed export sales to the G3 and regional markets. With China having done with its domestic consolidation and growth momentum picking up, this Asian giant will be an important driver for the export sector in 2014.

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