Singapore's 1Q13 GDP growth could sink by a wee 0.1%

It'll be the weakest performance since 3Q12.

According to OCBC, after disappointing and lackluster manufacturing data for Jan–Feb 2013, it expects Q1 GDP growth at a tepid -0.1% yoy (+2.5% qoq saar), relative to the +1.5% yoy (+3.3% qoq saar) seen in Q4 2012.

If this materializes, it would be the weakest quarterly performance since Q3 2012 (at 0% yoy and -4.6% qoq saar).

Manufacturing output had shrunk 8.3% yoy for the first two months, dragged down by weakness in both the electronics (-12.0% yoy) and non-electronics (-6.5% yoy), particularly pharmaceuticals.

Here's more from OCBC:

However, the global semiconductors book-to-bill ratio improved from a recent low of 0.75 in October 2012 to 1.10 in February, and we expect the domestic manufacturing sector to revert to positive on-year growth in H2. Our full-year GDP growth forecast remains at 2% yoy.

Private home prices rose by a more moderate 0.5% qoq in Q1 2013, down from +1.8% qoq in Q4 2012, while bank loans reaccelerated to 19.6% yoy (+2.1 mom) in Feb, notwithstanding the CNY festive season as both business & consumer loans picked up.

Inflation remains sticky and we do not expect any change at the upcoming monetary policy review.

The recent $3.1b 5-year SGS bond auction fetched an average yield of 0.48% with a bid-cover ratio of 1.7x. The next SGS issue is a 7-year re-opening (not a benchmark bond) on 3 June.

The people you want to reach are already in this room.

Every quarter, SBR lands on the desks of the founders, CFOs, and directors running Asia's most consequential companies. Every day, they open our newsletter and read our website. It's a room that took twenty years to build — and it's the one most of our partners are trying to get into.

The good news is that the door is open. We work with companies on thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. The shape of the right partnership depends on what you're trying to do, which is why we'd rather start with a conversation than send a rate card.

If you have something this room should know about, tell us. We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how.

No rate cards until we understand the brief. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia