Why Singapore's June NODX will be a big disappointment

It's predicted to drop 8.5%.

According to DBS, Singapore's June export sales will likely disappoint. Overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for the month (due tomorrow morning) likely have contracted by 8.5% YoY, down further from -4.6% in the previous month.

A high base is in the work, depressing the headline number while fundamentally, demand hasn’t been that strong to begin with.

Here's more:

The decline in electronics demand is unlikely to turn around and the only upside lies in the pharmaceutical cluster. Yet, eyeing the swings in the pharmaceutical sales is probably the lastthing one should do in gauging the external demand.

External headwinds remain strong. Data from the US have been mixed and Europe is still stuck in recession. While most Asia economies are still holding firm, China appears to be going through an internal consolidation and the overall demand from the region should likewise ease along with this Asia dragon.

Although the non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI) grew by SGD 0.6bn to reach SGD 5.2bn in May,that does not guarantee anything on the export front when juxtaposed again a global outlook still clouded with uncertainties. Any improvement, particularly on the margin will be a bonus.

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