HDB resale index edges up 0.4% in Q3 2025 amidst buyer resistance

Analysts expect the resale market to remain subdued in the final quarter.

The Housing and Development Board’s third quarter (Q3 2025) Resale Price Index remained neutral, growing 0.4% from the previous quarter.

Resale transactions during the period rose by 1.7%, from 7,102 cases in Q2 2025 to 7,221 cases. Compared to last year’s quarter, resale transactions in Q3 2025 were 11.3% lower.

Huttons’ senior director of data analytics, Lee Sze Teck, said the quarterly increase was seasonal as the third quarter is typically the busiest period. 

However, he noted that demand had softened compared with last year due to the launch of over 10,000 new Build-to-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) units in July, including about 3,900 with shorter waiting times of three years or less.

Prices rose marginally by 0.4% in the third quarter. This was the smallest gain since the second quarter of 2020, marking the third straight quarter of slower growth. 

For the first nine months of the year, prices were up 2.9%, also the weakest increase for the same period since 2020.

“This may point to price resistance amongst buyers,” said Lee.

The average price of a four-room resale flat edged up 0.3% to $676,645, whilst five-room flats gained 0.7% to $784,807. 

Prices of smaller and larger units were mixed, with two-room flats climbing 3.1%, whilst three-room and executive flats fell 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

Resale flats in Clementi recorded the largest price gains of 7.8% during the quarter, followed by Central Area (6.3%) and Geylang (5%). 

For the first time since 2019, more than 10 towns saw quarterly price declines.

Despite slower growth overall, million-dollar transactions continued to rise. A record 480 flats were sold for at least $1m, up 15.7% from the previous quarter. 

Most were in mature estates, led by Toa Payoh with 92 transactions, followed by Bukit Merah with 61 and Kallang/Whampoa with 40. The average price of such flats slipped slightly to $1.14m.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion, said the data showed the HDB resale market “has clearly entered a slower phase”. 
She noted that the 0.4% quarterly increase was the smallest in nearly five years and marked the fourth straight quarter of moderation. 

“Prices have surged by 54.9% the span of 23 consecutive quarters from Q1 2020 to Q3 2025 – resulting in wider gaps between seller expectations and buyer affordability,” she said, adding that this has led to longer negotiations and slower deal closures.

Sun also attributed the softer resale demand to the government’s ramp-up of BTO launches, with about 30,000 new units offered this year. 

She said the release of more than 100,000 BTO flats since 2021 has drawn many potential buyers away from the resale market, especially as some new flats now have shorter waiting times and remain heavily subsidised.

HDB towns with the highest resale activity in the third quarter included Sengkang, Tampines, Punggol, Yishun and Woodlands, which together made up about 35% of transactions.

Rental demand also improved slightly, with approved applications to rent out HDB flats rising 0.6% quarter-on-quarter to 10,123 units. 

Year-on-year, rental volume increased 11%. 

Sun said the rebound was driven by a higher foreign workforce and tenants seeking accommodation before the holiday period, but warned that rental demand could ease in the final quarter due to economic uncertainties and slower hiring.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the resale market to remain subdued in the final quarter of 2025 as demand typically softens during the year-end holidays. 

Both Sun and Lee said the recent increase in BTO supply and upcoming policy reviews on income ceilings and eligibility criteria for new flats could further divert buyers away from the resale segment.

Sun forecast HDB resale prices to rise between 3% and 5% for the full year, with total transactions reaching around 28,000 to 29,000 units.