November’s record private home sales ‘temporary’

Developer sales in December are expected to fall significantly.

November saw 2,557 new private home sales, the highest number of new units sold in a single month since 2,793 units were shifted in March 2013, however, analysts say this surge is just temporary as interest was mostly fueled by six back-to-back launches in the month.

The six projects alone accounted for 82% of new home sales. These are from Union Square Residences, The Collective at One Sophia, Chuan Park, Nava Grove, and Emerald of Katong – collectively shifted 2,106 units. Meanwhile, the other new project, Novo Place EC sold 289 units in November.

The top three projects were Emerald of Katong saw strong demand, with 99.3% of its units sold during the launch month. Chuan Park also saw strong buyer interest last month, with 78.7% of its units sold, due to its prime location near Lorong Chuan MRT station and easy access to the central region via public transport.

Meanwhile,  Nava Grove also achieved strong sales, with nearly 70% of its units sold.

Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee said the surge in sales is temporary.

“Throughout 2024, new home demand has been subdued, primarily due to the lack of significant private project launches. Notably, sales during the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to only 3,049 units, the lowest Q1 to Q3 figures recorded since 2004, the year when data from URA first became available,” Sun said.

Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content, PropNex Realty agreed, saying that November’s robust sales have to be seen in context and do not automatically imply that an unfettered resurgence is upon the private housing market.

“Buyers, by and large, remain discerning and continue to take a long-term view of their property purchase. We note that projects that are centrally-located with a higher entry price had more measured take-up rates in November. Given the lack of new project launches in December, we expect developers’ sales to fall significantly from that of November. For the full-year 2024, we project that new home sales could range from 6,500 to 7,000 units excluding EC,” Wong said.

Analysts also expect a significant drop in sales in December, but will pick up on Q1 2025.

In Jan 2025, Bagnall Haus and The Orie will be launched for sale before the Lunar New Year. Five launches are planned for the month of Feb 2025 after the Lunar New Year. These launches are Aurea, Aurelle of Tampines (EC), Elta, Lentor Central Residences and Parktown Residence. Huttons Data Analytics is cautiously optimistic about a better performance in the sales market in 2025. Some of the unsatiated demand in 2024 may flow over to the launches in Q1 2025,” Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director, Data Analytics at Huttons said.

Leonard Tay, Head, of Research at Knight Frank Singapore, however, cautioned that 2025 is likely to become more volatile as geo-political tensions continue to increase as the year closes.

“Especially with greater uncertainty in the Middle East and the current impasse in Ukraine. A second Trump presidency with warning shots of more tariffs and protectionist policies might affect businesses all over the world, affecting the flow of trade and the global economy. Should these combine to affect Singapore’s improving economy and the job market, homebuying demand might revert back to the sidelines as it did for much of 2024,” Tay said.