Analysts see confidence in $2.1b Bayshore bet

All three bids clustered around $2b, indicating market consensus on the site's value.

Analysts said developers' $2.128b bet on Bayshore's transformation reflects confidence in the long-term prospects of the new Bayshore precinct despite the scale and complexity of the project.

"The Bayshore Drive GLS site, connected to Bedok South MRT station on the TEL, is the only integrated transport hub in the upcoming Bayshore precinct," said Mark Yip, CEO of Huttons Asia.

He said integrated developments remain popular with buyers because of their convenience and connectivity, adding that the site's $2.1b price tag likely limited participation to joint ventures.

The Bayshore Drive tender drew the expected number of bidders of less than five, with a Frasers Property-led consortium submitting the top bid for a mixed-use government land sale (GLS) site that will become the precinct's integrated transport hub.

The consortium, comprising Gemini Residential Pte. Ltd. and Gemini Trustee Pte.Ltd. (as trustee-manager of Gemini Mall Trust), submitted the highest bid, translating to $1,323 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr), beating out two other bidders.

Yip noted that all three bids clustered around $2b, indicating "market consensus on the value of this coveted rare site."

The winning bid was 5.8% higher than the second-highest offer.

"The highest and lowest land rates were clustered within a 6.7% gap, suggesting that major developers generally shared similar assumptions regarding future launch-ready residential pricing, commercial rental return and the expected demand," said Alice Tan, head of consultancy at Knight Frank Singapore.

Realion Group deputy group CEO Justin Quek said the site's direct MRT link, retail component, and integrated design make it attractive to both homebuyers and investors.

He added that the strong sales at nearby Vela Bay, which sold 72% of its units at launch, support confidence in the precinct.

CBRE said the tender set a new benchmark for suburban mixed-use sites.

"The top bid is 12.2% above the $1,179 psf ppr achieved at Hougang Central... and sets a new benchmark land rate for an OCR commercial and residential site," said Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at CBRE. She added that the narrow spread between bids showed "tight consensus" on the site's value.

PropNex's head of research and content Wong Siew Ying said the bids reflect developers' confidence in Bayshore and continued demand for transport-integrated projects.

She pointed to the strong sales at projects such as Parktown Residence, Pinery Residences and Vela Bay as evidence of buyer interest.

Based on the winning land rate, consultants expect the future project to launch at around $2,800 to above $3,000 psf, with premium units potentially exceeding $3,200 psf.

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