2 technical factors that could have exaggerated China's weak September exports

Exports contracted by 0.3% y-o-y.

According to Barclays Research, Chinese exports actually did not do that poorly after accounting for base and holiday effects.

Here's more from Barclays:

China’s September exports contracted by 0.3% y/y, against consensus forecast of a 5.5% gain (Barclays: 5%) and compared to the 6% average growth in July-August.

We think the decline is likely exaggerated by two technical factors. First, a high base from the dubious trade reporting that started last June.

We estimate that fake reporting may have boosted export growth by 2.6 percent points in September 2012*.

Second, there were two fewer working days this September versus last year in three of China’s key trading partners – Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan (about 20% of China’s exports) – owing to a shift in the timing of a lunar calendar festival (mid-Autumn/Chuseok).

Considering daily average exports, we estimate that export growth to these three economies should be flat on a y/y basis, rather than show a decline of 4.5% y/y (or a drag of about 1 percentage point to total exports).

Hence, after adjusting for the two factors, we estimate that exports actually rose by about 3.5% y/y in September.

Even so, this is still less than half the ‘true’ growth rate in July-August (7.7%; after similar adjustments for the high base from earlier fake reporting).

The people you want to reach are already in this room.

Every quarter, SBR lands on the desks of the founders, CFOs, and directors running Asia's most consequential companies. Every day, they open our newsletter and read our website. It's a room that took twenty years to build — and it's the one most of our partners are trying to get into.

The good news is that the door is open. We work with companies on thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. The shape of the right partnership depends on what you're trying to do, which is why we'd rather start with a conversation than send a rate card.

If you have something this room should know about, tell us. We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how.

No rate cards until we understand the brief. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia