China's export growth plunged to -18.1% in February

Here's what to blame.

According to Morgan Stanley Research, China's February export growth fell significantly to -18.1% YoY (MS and consensus expected +7.5% YoY), down from +10.6% YoY in January.

Here's more:

The deceleration took place against a favorable Lunar New Year effect (more working days in February 2014 than February 2013), and against improvement in export data from Korea and Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Jan-Feb combined export growth, which smoothes out the volatile LNY effect, fell to -1.6% YoY (vs. +4.3% YoY in December), indicating that overall external demand growth remained weak year-to-date.

In view of the warning from the MofComm spokesperson about Jan/Feb data abnormality, the sizable fall in export growth can be partly explained by availability of trade financing and rampant over-invoicing 12 months ago. In addition, Customs suggested that the front-loading of exports to January before the LNY holiday likely played a role.

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