China's GDP growth hits a weaker-than-expected 7.7%

Blame it on weak investment.

According to BBVA, first quarter GDP growth came in at a weaker-than-expected 7.7% y/y (consensus: 8.0% y/y; BBVA: 8.2%), down from 7.9% y/y in Q4 2012 on weak investment.

BBVA attributes the weak Q1 GDP outturn to policy uncertainty that may have dampened investment, along with sluggish domestic demand momentum.

Here's more from BBVA:

In addition, a set of monthly activity indicators for March released today were also below expectations, including industrial production (8.9% y/y vs. consensus: 10.1%) and fixed asset investment (20.9% y/y, ytd vs. consensus: 21.3%), while retail sales growth was in line with expectations (12.6% y/y vs. consensus: 12.6%) and credit growth, released last week, exceeded expectations.

Although downside risks have risen, on balance we believe our 8.0% GDP projection for 2013 remains achievable, given strong credit growth and still-low inflation (2.1% y/y in March).

The latter should provide room for policies to remain simulative as the authorities balance support for the economy against risks of domestic financial fragilities.

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