Fears abound as Philippine export growth plummets 27% in September

This is the lowest growth ever recorded in 29 months.

This implies that total export growth for the year may be flat or even negative, says DBS.

Here’s more from DBS:

Given the backdrop of slower global growth, worries about the economy are certainly warranted. To be sure, export growth dropped to a 29-month low of -27.4% YoY in September following a 13.7% contraction in the preceding month. This implies that total export growth for the year may be flat or even negative. However, these numbers have probably been distorted by price effects. In nominal terms, exports were down by around 14% YoY in 3Q. But if we consider the volume of exports (only data from July and August are available), the average YoY growth is at a far more sanguine 23%. In nominal value terms, electronics exports were the hardest hit.

However, the export volume of electronics manufactures was actually higher in July and August compared to a year ago. This suggests that overall GDP may not be as bad as the headline export numbers are suggesting.

Moreover, other high frequency indicators are suggesting that the economy is still relatively strong. Firstly, the composite leading economic indicator has continued to advance from 0.116 in 3Q to 0.168 in 4Q. Secondly, loan growth has been accelerating, reaching 24.8% YoY in August.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, loan growth is has been hovering above 2% MoM since April, significantly higher than around 1% in 2H10. Thirdly, remittance growth has also been healthy despite external headwinds with total remittances rising by an average of 8.6% YoY (2% MoM, sa) in the three months ending September.

These indicators point to a relatively strong domestic economy and we suspect that sequential growth could rebound from 0.9% (QoQ, sa) in 2Q to around 1.4% (4.9% YoY) in 3Q. Our 4.6% GDP growth forecast is maintained for this year. Going into 2012, however, the prospect for an export recovery is becoming more distant. There are downside risks to our 5.2% growth forecast for 2012.

The people you want to reach are already in this room.

Every quarter, SBR lands on the desks of the founders, CFOs, and directors running Asia's most consequential companies. Every day, they open our newsletter and read our website. It's a room that took twenty years to build — and it's the one most of our partners are trying to get into.

The good news is that the door is open. We work with companies on thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. The shape of the right partnership depends on what you're trying to do, which is why we'd rather start with a conversation than send a rate card.

If you have something this room should know about, tell us. We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how.

No rate cards until we understand the brief. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia