Here's the main drag to Indonesia's economic growth

Private consumption to offset impact.

According to DBS, private consumption has been a key GDP growth pillar. On average, it has contributed about half of GDP growth since 2009.

Despite the recent turbulence in the financial markets, private consumption growth has remained strong. A spike in inflation and the sharp depreciation of the Rupiah may have affected domestic demand but this has been more prevalent in investment rather than in consumption.

Here's more from DBS:

Last week’s auto sales data suggest that underlying support from consumption growth prevails. Motor vehicle sales growth remains solid and another doubledigit growth is in the offing for 2013. Motorcycle sales have bounced up nicely from 2012, when the authorities introduced tighter financing rules to curb loan delinquencies.

Expect private consumption growth to remain supportive of overall GDP growth. It is likely to have remained at around 5% YoY in 2H, still supportive of our current 2013 GDP growth forecast of 5.8% YoY.

The drag to GDP growth has stemmed from falling commodity export earnings and a sharper than expected moderation in domestic investment. But Indonesia’s favourable demographics remain intact and this will remain a fundamental driver of GDP growth in the medium-term.

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