India's February industrial production edged up by 0.6%

Still a weak proof of stablisation.

According to DBS, February industrial production (IP) rose 0.6% YoY, compared to Bloomberg consensus at -1.3% and theirs at -0.6%. After accounting for seasonal variations, the six-month moving average affirms their expectations of stabilisation in activity, albeit at weak levels.

An uncharacteristic 9.5% (YoY) jump in the capital goods sector, however, introduces some concerns on the sustainability of the better-than-expected headline performance.

Here's more from DBS:

Support from the consumer goods sector, meanwhile, disappointed as output here rose 0.5% slowing from 2.7% average between April-February13. The supply-side constraints were also evident in the earlier released core industries index.

Overall, after slowing to 1.0% in FY12/13, early signs of bottoming out and positive outlook on the external demand variables could see output expand 3.0-4.0% this fiscal year. Base effects will also prove supportive into the year.

While the central bank’s capacity utilisation survey and business confidence indices displayed signals of bottoming out, it is imperative for the government to maintain the reforms momentum to kickstart the private capex cycle in a sustainable manner.

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