India's inflation predicted to soar to 9.5%

Blame it on rising retail fuel prices.

According to DBS, India's CPI inflation for June could inch up to 9.5% YoY from 9.3% the month before, underpinned by increases in retail fuel prices.

Here's more from DBS:

The diesel and petrol prices were raised by between 1.0-3.0% in the past month asthe oil marketing companies factored in stark rupee depreciation and modest gainsin the international fuel prices.

Simultaneously unfavourable weather conditions and supply disruptions likely resulted in higher pricesfor most vegetables and perishables,thus keeping the pace ofrise in food costs above the 10% mark forthe fifteenth consecutive month.

Building in the firm retail inflation print, weak currency and tentative stabilisation in the factory outputtrends, the RBI islikely to extend its pause-stance on the ratesfront.

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