Korea's March industrial production unexpectedly dips 2.6%

Early exports data also slipped 3.1%.

According to DBS, the data reported an unexpected drop in March industrial production (-2.6% MoM sa). This deviates from the rise implied in March PMI and suggests the possibility of a downward revision to the preliminary estimate of 1Q GDP.

April’s trade and PMI data, which foretells the 2Q outlook, may not be encouraging either. Exports in the first 20 days of April reported a decline of -3.1% YoY.

Here's more from DBS:

Unless shipments accelerated strongly in late-April, otherwise the full month export growth may only show a small on-year rise of about 1.0%.

Meanwhile, given the synchronized slowdown in April flash PMI in China, US and Europe, Korea’s PMI may also retreat from a strong 52.0 in March.

Overall, there are such concerns that the economic softness in 1Q is spilling over into 2Q, and a notable recovery would be delayed to 2H after the global economy improves and domestic fiscal stimulus starts to work.

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