Philippine exports to escalate a whopping 32.2%

Thanks to Chinese economy rebound and low base effects.

According to DBS, November export numbers are on tap this week and a 32.2% YoY increase has been penciled into the firm's forecast. The eye-popping number is largely due to low base effects and this phenomenon will be in play for December as well.

The export outlook for 2013 is expected to be more favorable with a rebound in the Chinese economy. Notably, electronics exports may see a strong revival after a prolonged period of depressed growth through the most part of last year.

"In more recent months, the value of electronic exports has trended up moderately. This is especially encouraging considering that electronics make close to 50% of total outbound shipments.

Any kind of boost from electronics will have a meaningful impact on total exports especially if the non-electronics manufactures component remains resilient. In the near term, the recovery in electronics is likely to be uneven.

Although the value of electronics export has been creeping up, the US semiconductor book-to-bill ratio is still at 0.79 in November," DBS noted.

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