Philippines' merchandise exports fell 12.8% in April

8 in 10 top markets declined.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, following a slight 0.2% YoY increase in March, merchandise exports contracted 12.8% in April (USD4.04b) to bring the decline YTD to 7.9% (USD16.1b).

Here's more:

Except for Japan and Thailand, all others in the top 10 markets declined in April, with China down 8.2% and the US 10.2%. This shows the weakness of external demand given the still-fragile state of the world economy.

Our outlook for this year does not depend on the incipient recovery of the global economy. Indeed, what we have factored into our forecasts is a decline in external demand, with the boost provided by services exports more than offset by the drag from goods exports.

We believe strong domestic consumption and investment will persist on the back of sustained consumer and business confidence, a substantial domestic population, low interest rates and government spending.

This should more than make up for falling merchandise exports and was the main reason for the recent upward revision to our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 7.5% from 6.4%.

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