Taiwans’ export orders surge 12.7% in September

Could it be due to the iPhone 6?

The export orders data out yesterday beat consensus forecast by a wide margin.

According to DBS, growth in total export orders accelerated to 12.7% (YoY) in Sep from 5.2% in Aug, the fastest rate over 20 months and far above the consensus of 3.7%. In month-on-month terms, growth also posted a double digit rate of 13.4%.

The increase in orders was concentrated in the high-tech segment. Demand for electronics components surged 19.4% (YoY) and demand for information & communication products also rose 16.3%.

The surge in electronics export orders in Sep coincided with the release of the new generation iPhone. Given that the initial sales results of iPhone 6/6 Plus have been very strong and the year-end festive season is around the corner, the upturn in Taiwan’s electronics exports is expected to continue into 4Q.

Ultimately, however, the sales performance of new electronics products will be determined by the final demand conditions in the global market.

The downside risks are increasing currently, considering the recession risks in Europe and Japan and the weaker-than-expected recovery in the US. Whether Taiwan’s export orders growth can be sustained at the double digit level is highly questionable. Don’t be surprised by a significant pullback in the subsequent quarters in 1H15.

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