Thai exports down 4.2% in October

Analyst predicts 1% contraction in 4Q.

Thailand's exports unexpectedly dropped after two months of gains, adding pressure on the struggling and trade-reliant economy.

Thailand's export value in October was US$17.8b, 4.2% lower YoY. The government attributed the decline to slow global trade, weaker shipments of gold and oil products plus last year's high base of comparison. Imports meanwhile rose a better-than-expected 6.5% from a year earlier. The 10-month export value was US$178.3b, down 1.02% from the same period of 2015.

Maybank KimEng comments that exports excluding gold and crude oil fell 3.7%, below the market’s lowest estimate of 3.1%.

Many sectors showed signs of weakness after a recovery in Aug-Sep 2016. Frozen seafood and chicken posted 10% growth in Oct 2016, matching the strong growth delivered by ceramic exports at 12% YoY. On 10M basis, the fruit juice sector is a winner, recording 22% YoY growth.

According to the research house, using the 10M16 average exports of THB17.8b for the last two months this year, exports will drop 0.2% YoY.

However, it noted that the export performance in November and December has been on average 3% lower than October in the past 15 years.

"Based on our estimates, Thai exports are most likely to average US$17.25b a month in Nov-Dec 2016, bringing 4Q16/2016 export performance to 1%/0.8% contraction, below the government’ target of flat growth," it said.

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