Singapore exports crash as Europe and US demand halved in January

Is monetary easing around the corner?

BBVA seems to think so, suggesting that MAS could effect monetary easing measures in order to reinvigorate the economy, which in recent months has seen weak exports, not to mention dropping retail sales and lackluster PMI data.

"The focus is now turning to the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s next policy meeting in mid-April, following recent weak retail sales and PMI data, which could lead to monetary easing," said BBVA.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by -30.6% y/y (consensus: -16.0%) after a small increase in January, a decline which BBVA noted was attributable to weak demand from Europe (-52.2% y/y) and the U.S. (-52.1%).

"While Singapore’s monthly data are notoriously volatile (and may be distorted by the shift in this year’s Chinese New Year timing), the disappointing outturn is a reminder of the weak external environment, as seen recently in weak export figures from Taiwan and Korea, in contrast to a surge in January/February exports from China," BBVA said.

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