NODX forecast to grow 2.5% as trade slows

Declines in non-electronics exports dragged growth in the third quarter.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth forecast narrowed to around 2.5% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in the second half of the year.

This follows a 5.1% increase in the first half, with overall growth for the first three quarters at 2.2%, according to an Enterprise Singapore report.

Q3 performance was weighed down by declines in non-electronics exports, including food preparations, petrochemicals, and volatile pharmaceuticals, which outweighed growth in electronics.

However, strong demand for AI-related products and high gold prices are expected to support NODX in the final quarter.

“Though the high base in November and December last year may weigh on performance,” the report said.

For 2026, NODX is forecast to grow between 0.0% and 2.0%, in line with the World Trade Organisation’s projection of slower global merchandise trade growth of 0.5%, down from 2.4% in 2025.

Risks include potential tariff re-escalation and sector-specific trade measures that could affect global demand.

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