SG likely to enter ‘technical recession’ in H1

Experts believe SG’s growth momentum will continue to slow in Q2.

Financial experts warned that Singapore might enter a “technical recession” or two consecutive quarters of negative QoQ prints in the first half of 2023.

In Q123, the GDP clocked a -0.7% QoQ print, marking the first sub-zero print since 2Q22. 

“Singapore’s GDP has effectively slowed to below trend in 1Q23, which may persist in 2Q23 given the headwinds seen in manufacturing and trade,” RHB said.

Xu Le, lecturer of the Department of Strategy & Policy at NUS Business School, however, believes that the recovery of domestic demand in mainland China will soon alleviate the situation in the manufacturing sector.

UOB, for its part, said it sees a “risk that revisions to 1Q GDP could subsequently show that the Singapore economy actually contracted on a YoY basis in the first quarter.”

On the flip side, RHB expects SIngapore’s performance to improve in the second half of 2023.

UOB expressed a similar sentiment adding that non-oil domestic experts are also likely to improve in 2H.