Chart of the Day: This graph is proof that home price indices are starting to crack

First drop in 7 quarters.

According to Barclays, private home prices have posted the first drop in seven quarters – the 4Q13 URA private home price index fell 0.8% q/q, bringing the full-year 2013 to a slight increase of +1.2%, which compares to increases of 2.8%/5.9%/17.6% in full-year 2012/2011/2010.

Private home prices are now 61% above the last trough in 2Q09.

Here's more from Barclays:

The unwinding of measures was not a miracle cure previously when fundamentals were weak as physical prices continued to slide 8-34% even after measures were eased or removed.

We expect the liquidity and low interest rate conditions to reverse in the next two years, exacerbated by the high supply pipeline, estimating that home prices will correct 5% in 2014 and another 5-15% in 2015.

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