HDB resale market rises QoQ but Q1 volume hits lowest since 2021

Resale activity rebounded after the festive period, analysts said.

HDB resale transactions rose 17.6% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to 6,179 units in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, whilst volume fell 4.5% year on year, marking the lowest Q1 transaction volume since 2021, according to flash estimates.

Analysts said activity in the resale segment picked up after the festive period at end-2025, whilst Huttons noted that the Sale of Balance Flats exercise in February 2026, which drew more than 15,000 applications, reduced resale demand during the quarter.

Buyers were split between those prioritising newer flats and those prioritising space. Executive and multi-generation flats recorded a 32.5% increase in transactions, whilst newer four-room flats that had met the five-year minimum occupation period also saw stronger interest.

Prices of HDB resale flats fell 0.1% in Q1 2026, the first quarterly decline in nearly seven years. Huttons said sellers took longer to close transactions in some cases, extending beyond the usual six to eight weeks.

Million-dollar flats rose to 412 units, up from 351 in the previous quarter, accounting for 6.7% of total resale transactions. The average price of these flats fell to about $1.15m from $1.17m.

Toa Payoh recorded the highest number of such transactions at 72 units, followed by Bukit Merah (57) and Queenstown (55).

Huttons noted that supply from recently completed Build-To-Order flats entering the resale pool added to activity in selected estates, including Alkaff Courtview, Ang Mo Kio Court, and Clementi Crest.

Looking ahead, about 13,480 flats will reach their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026, up about 70% from 2025, whilst HDB plans to launch about 6,900 BTO flats in June 2026, including projects in Lakeview and the former Keppel Club site.

Transaction volumes for 2026 are projected between 24,000 and 27,000 units, with prices expected to move 1% to 4%.

Private residential prices rose 0.3% in Q1 2026, extending gains for a sixth consecutive quarter, whilst sales volume declined amidst lower transaction activity across segments. Landed property prices fell 1.8%, whilst non-landed prices rose 1.0%.

By region, Outside Central Region prices increased 1.3%, Rest of Central Region 0.9%, and Core Central Region (CCR) 0.4%, with transaction volumes falling across all regions.

New launches supported demand, with Rivelle@Tampines and Pinery Residences reportedly selling more than 90% of units during launch weekend.

Luxury transactions of homes priced at $5m and above totalled 179 units in CCR, above the three-year quarterly average.

Analysts noted sustained demand in prime projects such as River Modern and Newport Residences, whilst overall outlook remains stable but sensitive to borrowing costs, construction costs, and external economic conditions.