NODX decline likely to continue for a few more months
Experts predict that NODX will contract by -5.5% to -9% in 2023.
With the weakness of global demand and the electronics downcycle, experts predict that Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) will see a few more months of year-on-year declines.
“The more negative prints on NODX declines to major export destinations of China and the ASEAN region, continued to affirm our cautious outlook,” UOB said in a report.
“We continue to expect an economic slowdown in the developed markets on the back of tighter monetary policy environment and could be made worse by ongoing weakness in the financial system, further restraining credit growth and dampening confidence,” UOB added.
Given these factors, UOB expects NODX to contract by -5.5% in 2023, whilst Maybank downgraded their forecast to -9% to -6%, given the worse-than-expected performance in the first four months of the year.
“The boost from China’s reopening remains elusive as its recovery has largely been driven by domestic services, while manufacturing remains subdued,” Maybank said.