Why Singapore's tech boom masks a widening non-electronics slump

UOB warns a 'K-shaped' trend will persist as chips dominate and energy costs drag other sectors.

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged in April, the strongest gain since February 2012, with economists crediting artificial intelligence (AI)-driven electronics demand but warning of moderation in the second half of 2026.

Data from Enterprise Singapore showed that April’s NODX rose 24.5%, outpacing the 12.4% growth recorded in April 2025, when electronics and non-electronics exports also expanded.

For the first four months of 2026, NODX increased 13.5%.

Barnabas Gan, group chief economist and head of Market Research at RHB Bank, said the latest data marks the strongest expansion since February 2012, when a 32.2% growth was recorded.

“We upgrade our full-year Singapore NODX growth forecast for 2026 to 7.5%, from the previous projection of 3.0%, following the stronger-than-expected export performance in April,” Gan said.

The expert said Singapore’s electronics export momentum is expected to remain well supported by the ongoing global tech upcycle and sustained AI-driven demand, which should continue to provide impetus to manufacturing output.

In April 2026, Electronic NODX grew 66.7%, thanks to demand for AI-related products. Integrated circuits, disk media products, and personal computers were the main contributors to the increase.

“We expect AI-related exports to remain the key driver of NODX growth, with NODX expansion projected to average around 12.2% in the first half of 2026. However, growth is likely to moderate in the second half of 2026, with NODX expected to normalise towards its trend of about 3.0%, supporting our full-year forecast of 7.5% for 2026,” Gan said.

Despite its optimism, RHB said it also remains cautious about external risks, especially uncertainties on the ongoing Middle East tensions and a potential AI bubble burst, which could impact Singapore’s manufacturing and trade activities in 2026.

Meanwhile, UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said in a separate report that the April data “reflects still-robust AI-related demand and the diffusion of AI applications into consumer electronics.”

Whilst there are signs of an emerging peak in the electronics/semiconductor cycle, with Taiwan’s tech exports to the US likely already peaked and South Korea’s semiconductor exports moderating slightly in April, UOB said it is still too premature to call for one.

“The K-shaped NODX growth is expected to persist in the months ahead, driven by sustained outperformance in the electronics/semiconductor segment amidst strong AI-related demand and ongoing agentic rollout by firms,” the UOB report read.

“In contrast, non-electronics exports may weaken, reflecting supply shortages in the chemicals segment and a surge in energy prices alongside broader spillovers, weighing on external demand,” it added.