Home sales to hit 10,000 as immigration surge offsets war risks

Demand is supported by low unsold inventory levels.

Singapore’s new home market is expected to see 9,000 to10,000 units in sales for 2026, with price growth of 2 to 4%, according to RHB. However, risks are increasingly tilted to the downside if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist for longer.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) flash estimate showed that Singapore’s property price index (PPI) rose 0.3% in 1Q26, easing from a 0.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.

RHB noted that unsold private residential inventory remains low, supporting price increases.

As at end-4Q25, unsold units fell 5% QoQ to 16,193, about 26% below the 10-year average and near historic lows.

With annual demand of 8,000 to 9,000 units, existing stock can be cleared in about two years, supporting continued price growth.

Rents are expected to rise 3 to 5% in 2026. About 6,955 units, including ECs, will be completed in 2026, slightly below 2025 and below historical averages. Potential inflows of expatriates and students, partly due to ongoing Middle East conflict, may further support rental demand.

However, higher stamp duties, property taxes, and maintenance costs keep net rental yields low at around 2–3%.  “In our view, this will likely temper long-term investment demand-led growth – unless some of the existing measures are relaxed,” RHB said. “We believe the lack of private residential investment properties could push potential tenants to seek alternate sources of renting options, such as the co-living sector.”

Meanwhile, around 9,640 private units, excluding ECs, are expected to be launched in 2026, down about 16% from 2025’s 11,435 units.

Launch activity remains healthy but lower. About 9,640 private units are expected to be launched in 2026, down 16% YoY, as per data from 99.co.

Developers are still likely to proceed given solid demand. Key launches include Vela Bay, Chuan Grove, Upper Thomson Road, Thomson View, and Holland Link GLS, which may see strong take-up.

The sector continues to be supported by population growth, low unsold inventory, and stable interest rates, with analysts highlighting that Singapore-listed developers are also benefiting from valuation support under the Government’s Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP), alongside ongoing capital management initiatives and improved dividend policies.

Recent land sale results further reinforce a firm pricing environment. Bids for the One-North site (March 2026) and Kallang Close (April 2026) indicate sustained developer confidence despite rising geopolitical tensions.

The One-North site in particular set a new benchmark land price for the area, with both sites implying estimated selling prices of around $3,000 per square foot.

This is further supported by stronger-than-expected take-up at Pinery Residences, where approximately 93% of 588 units were sold on launch day.

On the structural side, the report pointed to Singapore’s planned increase in immigration intake as a key long-term demand driver.

Planned higher intake of Singapore citizens and PRs is also seen as positive for long-term housing demand. Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong announced plans to admit 25,000–30,000 new citizens annually, up from an average of 21,300 during 2020–2024, and around 40,000 permanent residents annually, up from an average of 33,000.

This represents a potential 20–30% increase in annual population inflows, which is expected to support housing demand and offset declining birth rates, particularly as local buyers account for around 98% of residential transactions.

The trend is further reinforced by a steady decline in household size, which has fallen from 3.7 in 2000 to 3.09 in 2024.

As per Redbrick Mortgage Advisory, financing conditions remain supportive for buyers, with housing loan rates in April staying relatively low at 1.25–1.7%.

The 3-month SORA benchmark also remains on a gradual downtrend at 1.05% as of 8 April, easing 12 basis points year-to-date and broadly stable since March.

Still, RHB cautioned that key risks remain, including a potential Singapore economic slowdown, a resurgence in interest rates, and the possibility of additional property cooling measures, which could weigh on sentiment and transaction volumes.

“Whilst the Singapore residential sector could weather a slightly lower growth, a sharp decline in GDP growth resulting in higher job losses and wage declines will result in a sharp decline in buying demand and pricing outlook,” RHB said.