NODX growth seen at up to 4% as global trade cools

AI demand and high gold prices provide a buffer against the slowdown.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are forecast to grow by 2% to 4% in 2026, as global trade growth is expected to slow.

The expansion is supported in part by the electronics sector amidst continued artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand, according to an Enterprise Singapore report.

The agency said the NODX forecast remains consistent with the International Monetary Fund’s projection of slower global trade volume growth of 2.6% in 2026, compared with 4.1% last year.

Moreover, growth is anticipated to moderate from the 4.8% expansion recorded in 2025.

Electronic NODX rose 12.7% year-on-year in 2025, on the back of strong demand for integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products, particularly in the fourth quarter.

The momentum is expected to carry into 2026 as export orders for the electronic segments remained strong, with firms expecting higher orders in the first quarter of the year, the agency said.

“Robust AI-related demand and high gold prices should continue to provide support to NODX growth, though downside risks include an escalation in trade tensions or a correction in AI-related investment demand,” it added.

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